Back in 2012 not much was expected of the Orioles. They had a losing streak of some 14 seasons in a row and the roster did not appear strong. They surprised by making the playoffs, fueled by winning a number of one run games. They remained a competitive team despite the baseball experts saying the playoff run was a fluke, winning the division in 2014 and making the playoffs as a wild card team in 2016.
Again not much was expected from the Orioles in 2017, but that has never prevented them from making a wild card run. The offense appeared formidable and they had gone out into the free agent market to sign two decent starting pitchers in Alex Cobb and Andrew Cashner to add to their threesome of Chris Tillman, Kevin Gausman and Dylan Bundy. They still had one of the best closers in the bullpen in Zach Britton.
No one expected the 2018 season to end with the Orioles ending up with the worst record in baseball. Manny Machado and Zach Britton have been traded. Adam Jones becomes a free agent and Chris Davis is having one of the worst seasons ever by a major league player. And the Orioles are still committed to him for over $20 million for another three years. With the losses through trade and free agency the immediate future looks bleak for the Orioles.
So what is the long term future of the Orioles. The hope is they improve their prospect stock with the trades of Machado and Britton and possibly other veterans. Their farm system has also been improving, but a lack of resources in the international arena hurts them. It is not that they ignore the international arena. Myworld has met one of their international scouts while in Taiwan. It is just they do not have a lot of resources dedicated to that area.
Below are some of the players myworld believes are gong to be key if the Orioles are going to contend in the future. Dylan Bundy, Kevin Gausman and Jonathan Schoop will be at the end of their player control contracts by that time and will have already become free agents or will be heading that direction the following year before the Orioles become competitive again. The decision to keep them will depend on their performance and if they perform well if the Orioles want to meet their market price.
Outfield:
1. Yusniel Diaz RF - The Cuban is a promising prospect acquired from the Dodgers in the Manny Machado trade. A number of years ago the Orioles signed a couple free agent Cubans but they never made an impact. They hope better from Diaz. His future is probably as a rightfielder, though the speed is there to play center. He needs to hit for a little more power if he wants to become an impact rightfielder. Currently in AA he should be ready for the Orioles in 2020.
2. Austin Hayes RF - Another player that can play right field. Interesting he should develop heel and ankle issues after signing an Under Armour contract. Hopefully it was not the shoes. Hayes has already shown his ability to hit for power with his 32 homer season in the minor leagues in 2017. He was expected to take over the right field slot for the Orioles this year but a poor spring got him a minor league assignment and his foot injuries have limited him to 43 games in 2018 with an unhealthy .224 average. When he gets healthy he will have to see more time in the minors in 2019 to get that average up.
3. Cedric Mullins CF - He could be the centerfielder of the future for the Orioles if he can show the offense. The speed is there. The arm could move him to left. After having some success in AA (.313) he was promoted to AAA (.278). Despite his 5′8′ size he shows some juice in his bat. He could get a September callup this year and with Adam Jones leaving via free agency become the Orioles starting centerfielder at the start of the 2019 season.
4. Ryan McKenna CF - He appears to be the Orioles Austin Hays of 2018. A fourth round pick who suddenly emerges, but hitting more for average in High A (.377) to get a promotion to AA than power. He covers a lot of ground in centerfield but myworld will have to see more of his bat before we anoint him an Oriole of the future. His expected arrival time is 2019 as a late season callup.
5. D.J. Stewart LF - Myworld only mentions him because he was a first round pick of the Orioles in 2015. His defensive flaws limit him to left field. Currently he is in AAA hitting just .237 with 9 homeruns. With his poor defense in the outfield he needs to show more offense to become a factor with the Orioles.
Catching
1. Chance Sisco - There is not a lot to like behind the plate in the minor leagues. Sisco is the best opportunity for the Orioles but he is struggling at the major league level this year. His defense is not strong so to be effective he must show a potent bat. That has yet to make an appearance with the Orioles.
Infield
1. Ryan Mountcastle 2B - The Orioles currently have him at third base at AA. He did not have the arm to stick at short and he does not have the arm to play third. His ultimate position may be second base or left field. His bat will be productive but the Orioles will need to find a position for him.
2. Anthony Santander 1B - A Rule V acquistion, his ultimate position may be at first base. He does not have the defensive tools to be a quality outfielder. His bat does show some power but it did not appear when the Orioles were forced to keep him on the roster for the first part of this year. The Orioles currently have too many first baseman trying to play defense in Chris Davis, Mark Trumbo and Trey Mancini so finding Santander playing time so he can develop at his more natural position may be difficult. Expect his arrival to be more mid-2019.
3. Adam Hall SS - He was a second round pick in 2017. So far he has not really rocked the minor leagues to show that he can be an asset to the Orioles future. He has shown very little power with zero homeruns and a .296 slugging percentage this year in the rookie ball. His glove has also showed some inconsistency.
4. Cadyn Greinier SS - The Orioles shelled out $1.8 million to sign him as the 37th pick in the 2018 draft. The jury is still out on his impact. He has shown some gap power but a .237 average in Low A is not promising. Give him some time.
5. Rylan Bannon 3B - An 8th round pick in 2017, Bannon was one of the players acquired in the Machado trade. He hit 20 homeruns while playing in the California League. The Orioles have started him in AA where one of his two hits in 11 at bats carried over the fence. It would nice to see his power bat continue because the Orioles lack a player at this position.
Pitching
It would be nice if the Orioles could sign Dylan Bundy and Kevin Gausman to long term contracts. They will be at their free agent years when the younger players are ready to make an impact. Pitching arms though can be very fragile.
1. Hunter Harvey RHP - Another year another injury. Electric stuff but an inability to stay healthy. Myworld does not hold a lot of hope that he will make an impact with the Orioles but he is a top level prospect.
2. DL Hall LHP - The lefty was a first round pick of the Orioles in 2017. Since he was drafted out of high school it will take a couple years before he is ready. Pitching at Delmarva he shows quality stuff (2.44 ERA, .199 opposition average) but must learn to harness his command.
3. Grayson Rodriguez RHP - The Orioles first round pick in 2018, he is further away than Hall. In seven innings he has yet to give up a run in rookie ball but has issued more walks (5) than whiffs (4) something you don’t want to see from your pitchers. But it is still early.
4. Dillon Tate RHP - The pitcher acquired from the Yankees in the Britton trade. He was orignally drafted by the Rangers but traded to the Yankees in the Carlos Beltran trade. At 24 years of age he is still pitching at AA. He could be ready to appear in the rotation in 2019. Being traded twice can mean two things, either two teams wanted him because of his talent, or two teams traded him because they saw too many flaws in his game.
5. Alex Wells LHP - Not the type of pitcher that will wow you with his velocity. His radar readings at the Prospect game in the All Star game were the lowest of any pitcher that appeared on the mound (91 mph), but he has been getting hitters out to keep his ERA below 4. Opponents are hitting .290 against him so it is his lack of walks that will get him to the major leagues.
6. Michael Baumann RHP - The third round pick in 2017 dominated at Delmarva (1.42 ERA) in seven starts. His lack of command and having just two pitches in his tool box (fastball/slider) make pitching at High A more of a challenge (3.67 ERA). If he fails to develop a quality third pitch he could end up in the bullpen as a closer.
7. Zac Lowther LHP - Another pitcher who dominated at Delmarva (1.16 ERA). He does not have the velocity on his fastball as Baumann but he has a better variety of pitches to achieve more success at High A Frederick (3.04 ERA).
8. Keegan Akin LHP - We like his stuff. Not a hard thrower but AA hitters are only hitting .205 against him. He could be a part of the Orioles rotation by mid-2019 if his success continues in AAA.
9. Branden Kline RHP - A bullpen arm that has had trouble staying healthy. He is already 26 but if he continues to keep the ERAs under 2.00 and the opposition average under .250 he will find a bullpen spot for the Orioles. Expect a September callup for Kline this year.
10. Zach Pop RHP - Another bullpen arm acquired from the Dodgers in the Machado trade. While he may be named Zach don’t expect him to replace Britton. He still needs some work improving his command. At least his ERA at Bowie is no longer infinity.