Archive for March, 2020

NL West Predictions

Sunday, March 8th, 2020

We start out west with the National League. This is a pretty obvious race to predict the winner.

1. Los Angeles Dodgers

Good - The acquisition of Mookie Betts transformed this outfield into one of the best in baseball. Mookie and Cody Bellinger combine both offense and defense and are probably 1-2 in the National League as far as top outfielders. Joc Pederson and A.J. Pollock will form a solid platoon in left. The infielders have no slackers either with Max Muncy, Justin Turner and Corey Seager combining for 92 homeruns last year. The open spot will be filled by super rookie Gavin Lux at second base. The starting pitching does not have as much depth as last year but Clayton Kershaw and Walker Buehler make a good one two punch.

Bad - Not a lot to find here. The relief pitching appears a little spotty. Kenley Jensen had an off year last year and the Dodgers are relying on retreads Joe Kelly and Blake Treinen to set up for him if he struggles. This will mean they will have to pitch better than last year.

Ugly - Nothing ugly about this team, but it could get ugly if the Dodgers under perform and fail to win 100 games.

Rookies - Gavin Lux is a strong favorite to win rookie of the year with his play at second base. He can also play short if something should happen to Seager. Also, keeping the glove of Max Muncy away from second base improves the defense. The lack of depth in the rotation with the departures of Kenta Maeda and Hyun-Jin Ryu will give Dustin May an opportunity to start. He pitched mostly in relief last year but did get four starts. Will Smith would have to be injured before Keibert Ruiz would be given an opportunity to catch. With a good spring Tony Gonsolin could work himself in the rotation. He could begin the season in the bullpen.

Expected Finish - If they don’t win this division it may be one of the biggest shocks in baseball. They should win it by at least 20 games.

2. Arizona Diamondbacks

Good - The acquisition of Starling Marte gives them a strong outfield with David Peralta and free agent acquisition Kole Calhoun surrounding him at the corners. It also allows Ketel Marte to move to second and Eduardo Escobar to play third, strengthening those two positions. Those five have the potential to combine for 150 homeruns. The big question marks are Ketel Marte replicating his break out 2019 season and Peralta staying healthy. Nick Ahmed shows he can play defense with any shortstop, but his bat is a little soft.

Bad - The acquisition of Madison Bumgarner would be good if it had been done four years ago. He has hit 30 and it has been since 2016 when he last had a good season. Maybe he can find the Justin Verlander juice and resurrect his career in a new city. Robbie Ray, who starts behind him in the number two spot has seen his numbers drop, including the velocity on his fastball. Not really sold on Christian Walker, though he did outperform Paul Goldschmidt last year, the player he replaced at first base.

Ugly - Couldn’t find anything ugly here other than being in the same division as the Dodgers.

Rookies - If Jon Duplantier can avoid injury he could squeeze himself into this rotation by mid-season. Last year he struggled finding the plate resulting in a 5.21 ERA in AAA. Josh Rojas could win a job in a utility roles. Rojas was the player that almost sunk the Justin Verlander trade when Jeff Luhnow thought it was a big ask by the Diamondbacks to add him as a third player in the trade.

Expected Finish - Second place, but out of the wild card race.

3. Colorado Rockies

Good - They have an MVP over at third base in Nolan Arenado. The Rockies were looking to trade him so if that happens this position would drop. If Trevor Story can stay healthy the left side of the infield would be exceptional.

Bad - Daniel Murphy has just lost too much in the bat to fit at first base. His defense there also does not justify him playing the position. No real alternatives except possibly moving Ryan McMahon there. David Dahl needs to stay healthy and Raimel Tapia needs to find the bat that hit over .300 in the minor leagues. They will be battling the over paid Ian Desmond for one of two outfield spots. Charlie Blackmon is not the outfielder he used to be, but he was good enough to hit 30 plus homeruns last year.

Ugly - The pitching. There is no ace in the rotation or closer in the bullpen. They need to find bounce back years from German Marquez and Kyle Freeland. Wade Davis couldn’t get anyone out last year (8.65 ERA). Getting the three to put up 2018 numbers would help in crafting more wins. It will be a battle in the spring to find the closer.

Rookies - Brendan Rodgers shoulder injury will prevent him from playing until mid-season. He seems to be blocked at all the infield positions. Sam Hilliard does not have to do much but bash 30 plus homeruns to win the left field job. He needs to improve his ability to make contact.

Expected Finish - The starting pitching will have to make a big turn around to finish anything higher than third place.

4. San Diego Padres

Good - They got one of the strongest left sides in baseball in Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado. Tatis needs to stay healthy and Machado needs to improve his numbers in a pitcher’s park. Machado has hit 30 plus homeruns in his last five seasons but last year was the second year of those five when he slugged less than .500. Chris Paddack has ace like potential and the Padres have some young hurlers like McKenzie Gore and Luis Patino who may improve the rotation toward the end of the year. Kirby Yates is a solid closer. The Padres may trade him before the trade deadline to acquire more prospects, leaving the recently acquired Emilio Pagan as the closer. Both are solid in the bullpen.

Bad - The starting rotation after Paddock is very vanilla and will give up a lot of runs. Short outings may tax what is a good bullpen, leaving them tired and performing below expectations. Eventually the youngsters will filter in and that will result in inconsistency. The potential for this starting rotation is good, but they are still a year or two away. The hope is Jurickson Profar can replicate his 2018 season when he hit .254 with 20 homeruns. He hit 20 homeruns last year but his batting average sunk to .218. Veteran Brian Dozier was acquired to fill the position in case Profar struggled, but his best days are behind him.

Ugly - Putting Josh Naylor out in left field. His best position is DH, though he might be able to be passable at first. Putting him out into the outfield is an impending disaster. Fortunately for the Padres they have a lot of depth in the outfield, but the Padres would like to find a spot for Naylor’s bat.

Rookie - They have three pitchers who could see significant time in the starting rotation in MacKenzie Gore, Luis Patino and Adrian Morejon. None of them will probably be up before June. Both Michel Baez and Andres Munoz have closer stuff and may break camp in the Padres bullpen. Jake Cronenworth is a possible two way/utility player. His primary position is short but he can play multiple positions, including pitch, with a fastball that reaches the mid-90s.

Expected Finish - Their farm system is one of the best in baseball, but the talent is still a year or two away from competing for a playoff spot.

San Francisco Giants

Good - They really have no good in this lineup. Buster Posey, Evan Longoria and Brandon Crawford were once good in their prime but now they are just average, waiting for their replacement to rise up and fill their position in a couple years. In the meantime they will produce average numbers.

Bad - As usual the outfield lacks any big names. It would be asking a lot to have Mike Yastrzemski put up similar numbers to last year. His name is the biggest name, but it is only because his grandfather is Carl. The corners could be rotated a lot with Jaylin Davis being given an opportunity. Last year Jaylin hit 35 homeruns in the minor leagues and he added one in the majors. The bullpen lacks a closer. They will turn to Tony Watson and if he fails it could become bullpen by committee.

Ugly - With the departure of Madison Bumgarner the Giants rotation lacks an ace. Johnny Cueto is coming off injury, Jeff Samardzija is just a year away from a 6.25 ERA and Kevin Gausman has never met his potential. Before the season ends you could see 10 or more different arms trying to salvage this rotation.

Rookies - Joey Bart is having a good spring and is ready to replace Buster Posey. Posey could move to first, but his anemic bat no longer supports that position. This could move Brandon Belt to the outfield, weakening the defense. Mauricio Dubon is battling for the second base job. Last year he became the first Honduran to play major league baseball. Jaylin Davis could squeeze his 35 homeruns into a fluid outfield.

Expected Finish - Not quite catching the Padres, so last in the division.

Major League Farm Rankings - 5 - 1

Wednesday, March 4th, 2020

Myworld saved the best for last. The top five farm teams. Unfortunately for all these teams you had to tank a few seasons to get here. Time will tell whether it was worth it.

5. Detroit Tigers (27.68)

The pitching in the minors may be the best in baseball. It all starts with Casey Mize, the first pick in the 2018 draft. Shoulder issues last year created an early ending to his season, which is a cause of concern. Matt Manning, the Tigers first round pick in 2016 was the top pitcher in the organization until Mize was picked. Tarik Skubal seemed to come out of nowhere to have a special season. You look at his minor league track record and it is impressive for a ninth round pick (2018). He is the one lefthander in the group. Outfielder Riley Greene was their first round pick in 2019. He is tearing it up this spring, already with two homeruns as a 19 year old. His defense will limit him to left field. Isaac Paredes was signed out of Mexico in 2015 and is listed at shortstop. His bat will get him in the lineup, but it will probably be either at third, second or as a utility player. The range isn’t there to stay at shortstop.

Alex Faedo and Franklin Perez are two other top of the line pitchers who could complete the five man rotation. Faedo was a first round pick in 2017 and Perez was acquired from Houston. He has battled injuries the last two seasons, limiting him to just 9 starts and 27 innings. Parker Meadows is the brother of Austin and was the Tigers second round pick in 2018. At 6′5″ he carries some power in his bat. Roberto Campos is another outfielder to watch. He was signed out of Cuba in 2019 for $2.85 million and will make his debut in 2020. Adinso Reyes is a middle infielder the Tigers signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2018 for $1.45 million. He hit .331 with a .508 slugging percentage in the Dominican Summer League, good numbers if he can stay at short. Jose dela Cruz is an outfielder that they also signed out of the Dominican Republic for $1.85 million in 2018. He hit .307 with 11 homeruns, a .556 slugging percentage and 16 stolen bases in Rookie ball as a 17 year old. He currently has centerfield speed.

4. Seattle Mariners (28.59)

Jarred Kelenic was a first round pick of the Mets in 2018. They traded him to the Mariners in the Robinson Cano/Edwin Diaz deal. Kelenic has five tool potential, with centerfield speed and middle of the order power potential. Julio Rodriguez is a Dominican who the Mariners signed in 2017 for $1.75 million. He does not have the speed of Kelenic, but his power will be special. Logan Gilbert was the Mariners first round pick in 2018 who has already pitched himself to AA. He could make his major league debut sometime by mid-season in 2020. Evan White recently signed a long term contract. The 2017 first round pick is a defensive wiz at first base who will hit but may be a bit short in power for a typical first baseman. Noelvi Marte was signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2018 for $1.55 million. His hit tool including his power is more impressive than his glove at short at this point. Justin Dunn was another Mets first round pick (2016) they traded to the Mariners in the Cano/Diaz deal. He made his major league debut last year and will be competing for a rotation spot this year. Justus Sheffield was a first round pick of the Yankees in 2014 but sent to the Mariners in the James Paxton trade. The lefthander has ace like tools if he can enhance his command. Kyle Lewis was the Mariners first round pick in 2016. He appears fully recovered from his gruesome knee injury in 2016 and is poised to take over one of the corner outfield spots. George Kirby was the Mariners first round pick in 2019 and made a good debut last year, not walking a hitter in 23 innings, a 0/25 walk to whiff ratio.

We named a lot of prospects in the Top 100, which fill their top ten prospect list. Brandon Williamson was a second round pick in 2019. The lefthander has a good fastball that got 14.7 whiffs per 9 innings in his minor league debut.

3. Chicago White Sox (31.34)

Luis Robert was the second best prospect after Wander Franco. The Cuban outfielder signed a $26 million bonus in 2017. Last year he had a break out season with 32 homeruns after going homerless in 2018. Andrew Vaughn was the first pick in the 2019 draft. His right handed swing is sweet and should live in the .300 neighborhood. He could rise quickly and reach the major leagues in 2021. Michael Kopech was the hardest thrower in the minor leagues two years ago but Tommy John surgery forced him to sit out the 2019 season. Command is still a question with him. Nick Madrigal led Oregon State to the College World Series championship in 2018, with the White Sox rewarding him by making him a first round pick in 2018. He will be an excellent defensive second baseman who makes consistent contact, but his bat may lack power.

Matthew Thompson is a second round 2019 pick to be watched. He throws in the mid-90s and has a full array of pitches, impressive for a high schooler. Yolbert Sanchez was signed out of Cuba in 2019. He was a teammate of Luis Robert on Cuba’s Under-18 World Cup team. At 22 the White Sox will move him quickly. His hit tool is ahead of his glove and he may eventually have to move from short to second.

2. San Diego Padres (31.92)

MacKenzie Gore was the Padres first round pick in 2017. The lefthander currently could be the best pitching prospect in the minor leagues. Luis Patino throws from the opposite side. He was signed out of Colombia for just $130,000 but his 6′0″ frame can zip the fastball across the plate in the high 90s. CJ Abrams was the Padres 2019 first round pick. Speed is his tool but he hit .401 in his 32 game debut in rookie ball. Taylor Trammell was a first round supplemental pick of the Reds in 2016, winning the MVP in the Futures Game in 2018. He was sent to the Padres in the three team trade with the Indians to acquire Trevor Bauer. Luis Campusano will be a premium catcher with good offensive and defensive tools. He was the Padres second round pick in 2017. Adrian Morejon is a lefthanded pitcher the Padres signed out of Cuba in 2016 for $11 million. He was voted the MVP of the 15 and Under World Cup, defeating the United States in the gold medal game with a complete game victory.

Gabriel Arias has a smooth glove that could win gold. He also brings a decent bat to the plate. The Padres signed him for $1.9 million in 2016 out of Venezuela. Last year he made his debut in the .300 neighborhood (.302) at High A, slugging 17 homeruns. Reggie Preciado was signed for $1.3 million out of Panama in 2019. His bat is ahead of his glove and his slow foot speed may require a move from shortstop to third base. Ismael Mena was signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2019 for $2.2 million. He has excellent speed with a 6′3″ frame that could hit for power.

1. Tampa Bay Rays (32)

Not only will they make the playoffs, but their farm system is brimming with prospects that could help with their playoff roster. Wander Franco is the top prospect in baseball. He could become a superstar shortstop. Brendan McKay was noted more for his bat than his glove in college, the Rays rewarding him by making him the first round pick in 2017. His arm is what got him to the majors last year. He needs to improve with the bat if the Rays hope to use him as a two way player. Vidal Brujan has a small frame but the legs have the speed to steal 40 plus bases. He won’t hit for a lot of power. Xavier Edwards is the third shortstop prospect on this list. He may have the best glove of this group and will hit in the neighborhood of .300 with very little power. He was a 2018 first round supplemental pick of the Padres who sent him to the Rays in the Tommy Pham trade. Brent Honeywell has not pitched the last two seasons because of two separate arm injuries. The 2014 second round supplemental pick was supposed to follow Blake Snell in the rotation before the injuries shelved his climb. Shane Baz is a first round 2017 pick with a fastball that can hit triple digits. Josh Lowe is the brother of Nate. The 2016 first round pick had a break out power season last year with 18 homeruns. He still must improve on his contact issues. Greg Jones was the Rays first round pick in 2019 who hit .335 in his minor league debut. Speed is his main attribute, which may move him from short to center. Shane McClanahan is a 2018 first round pick who can hit the radar in triple digits, excellent for a lefthander. Yoshitomo Tsutugo was signed out of Japan. He had 40 homerun seasons there but can be a defensive liability. Joe Ryan was a seventh round 2018 pick who had a fabulous season last year, striking out more than 14 hitters per nine innings last season.

Ronaldo Hernandez is a catcher out of Colombia who has both a good glove and bat. His arm is a rifle and will control the running game. The Rays parted with $1.5 million to sign Jhon Diaz in 2019. He has a small frame with above average grades in all areas but power.

Nicaragua, Cuba and Venezuela Qualify for U-23 Baseball World Cup

Monday, March 2nd, 2020

The host Nicaragua did not lose a game in the Americas qualifier and will be going to Mexico in October for the WBSC U-23 Baseball World Cup. They defeated Cuba 1-0 in the championship match. Cuba also qualified by finishing in second place.

Venezuela defeated Colombia 9-0 to finish in third place and become the third qualifier for the U-23 World Cup. The United States did not participate in the event.

The teams that have qualified for the U-23 Baseball World Cup to be played in Mexico in October are:

Africa - South Africa
Americas - Mexico, Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua
Asia - Japan, Taiwan and China
Europe - Czech Republic and Germany
Oceania - New Zealand
Wild Card - Korea

Final Olympic Qualifier Postponed Until June

Monday, March 2nd, 2020

The corona virus has forced the postponement of the final Olympic qualifier for baseball from April until June 17-21. The teams expected to play in that are Taiwan, Australia, China, the Netherlands the second and third place finisher from the Americas Baseball qualifier in Surprise and Tempe Arizona on March 22-26.

The winner of this final qualifier would be the sixth and last team to qualify for the Olympics in baseball. The four countries that have qualified include the host Japan, Israel, Korea and Mexico.

As far as their baseball season myworld has not heard about any postponements or special conditions concerning their exhibition seasons. Japan is playing their exhibition season in empty stadiums while Korea has cancelled it exhibition season.

AL East Predictions

Sunday, March 1st, 2020

They may have to take a back seat to the AL West as far as quality of teams after the Red Sox trade of Mookie Betts turns the Red Sox into average.

Tampa Bay Rays

Good - They always seem to have depth in their starting rotation. A free agent leaves or a pitcher gets traded another fills in behind him. Blake Snell is the ace, but there is some health concern with his elbow this year. Tyler Glasnow put up some ace like numbers in his 12 starts so he could fill in behind Snell. Charlie Morton is the veteran that will most likely roll as the ace if Snell goes down. The back end of the rotation could be filled by Brendan McKay, Brent Honeywell and/or Ryan Yarbrough. Yarbrough was often the second pitcher to pitch the bulk of the innings in an opener situation, but the Rays could have enough starters not to need the opener. Honeywell may not be available until mid-season. The corner outfielders could generate some power with Hunter Renfroe and Austin Meadows. Each hit over 30 homeruns last year. Randy Arozarena could be up by mid-season to provide some power in center. Japanese import Yoshitomo Tsutsugo is a third power source, but he could see most of his at bats at third base or DH.

Bad - Infield is a bit vanilla, especially the corners with Ji-Man Choi and Yandy Diaz. Diaz did show some power last year, but they may be better offensively at the corners with Tsutsugo and Jose Martinez, though the defense may suffer. Nate Lowe could provide some interesting pop at first base. Willy Adames needs to make more contact but is solid at short and the second base job belongs to Brandon Lowe, if he can stay healthy. The catching position will not generate much offense. Mike Zunino can hit for power but he struggles to stay above the Mendoza line. The bullpen lacks a closer. The man with the best stuff maybe Colin Poche, but he seems susceptible to the long ball.

Ugly - They are the definition of small market. The budget is tight so going out to get needs is not possible unless you are seeking a bargain. So while the Dodgers trade for Mookie Betts the best the Rays can hope for is Jose Martinez. This could become critical as they battle down to the wire with the Yankees.

Rookies - If Brandan McKay has a good spring he could be in the rotation right out of the gate. Brent Honeywell will have to wait until mid-season since he hasn’t really pitched in two years and needs to get starts in the minors. Yoshitomo Tsutsugo is technically a rookie, though he has had 40 homerun campaigns in Japan. Randy Arozarena should be the centerfielder by mid-season. Don’t expect to see number one prospect Wander Franco until 2021.

Predicted Finish - They will battle it out with the Yankees for the top spot.

New York Yankees

Good - There is a lot of power in the bats of Aaron Judge, Gleyber Torres, Giancarlo Stanton, Miguel Andujar and Gary Sanchez if they can stay healthy. Except for Torres and Sanchez that has been an issue. Signing Gerritt Cole gives them a true ace. D.J. LeMahieu and Gio Urshela may not have the power of the other bats in the lineup, but they are just solid ballplayers who play good defense and provide critical offense. Aroldis Chapman can still hit triple digits with his fastball and if he falters Zack Britton can step in to be the closer. The bullpen should hold a lot of leads after the seventh inning. Lots of depth on this team to cover the different positions. Finding at bats for them will be a challenge unless injuries create the opportunities.

Bad - The outfield will be a little thin without Judge and Stanton. Because of their fragility the manager may have to find them a lot of rest if they are healthy. Brett Gardner is not really a centerfielder so that will be a defensive liability until Aaron Hicks returns, but that is not certain. The starting pitching depth has been dealt a blow with the early injuries to Luis Severino and James Paxton. Paxton should be back by mid-season and Domingo German will be a shot in the arm when he returns from the restricted list.

Ugly - The injuries. The Yankees won last year despite all their injuries. Those injuries are taking their toll again. Perhaps it is the large contracts and the sense of comfort with these large contracts that don’t make the players work as hard as they need to in order to stay in shape. They have depth in their starting lineup to deal with some of these injuries, but it will be hard for the pitching staff to replace the loss of veteran starters.

Rookies - Despite being a veteran team, the injuries have created a depth problem in the starting rotation. This could provide an opportunity for Clarke Schmidt, Deivi Garcia, Michael King or Albert Abreu to fit in the rotation. Thairo Estrada could play a role as a utility player, though he may not see many games with infielders Urshela, Torres and LeMahieu all expected to play more than 150 games.

Expected Finish - Second Place, but qualifying for a wild card.

Boston Red Sox

Good - J.D. Martinez may be one of the better hitters in the league. If he was not such a liability on defense he could fill in at left field to make the outfield whole again. Rafael Devers is a hitting machine. His defense is a little iffy, but he will produce more runs with his bat than he will let in with his glove. That is all I have for the good.

Bad - Starting rotation is a little shallow. A lot depends on the results of Chris Sale. He has got to have a better year than last year. Even if he does bounce back the back end of the rotation appears horrid. Eduardo Rodriguez always seems so up and down and Nathan Eovaldi has not started 30 games since 2014. Martin Perez keeps getting second chances and failing to fulfill the promise. Second base will be a battle between Jose Peraza and Michael Chavis. Jose provides little offense and Chavis little defense at the position. Choose your poison. The bullpen lacks a proven closer though Brandon Workman provided 16 saves last year.

Ugly - The right field position. Trading an MVP candidate creates a giant hole in right field. Expecting Alex Verdugo to fill it, or even Kevin Pillar is asking a lot. It puts a lot of pressure on the other players to make up for the lost production. Myworld does not see a lot more increased production in this lineup. The trade of Betts was needed to stay under the salary cap. The Red Sox could have kept Betts and chosen to go over the salary cap, but they went the less costly route, which won’t result in victories in 2020.

Rookies - The farm system is slim but they have a power bat in Bobby Dalbec for third base if they want to move Devers to first to generate more offense. A lot will depend on the production of either Mitch Moreland or Chavis at first. Jarren Duran could be a mid-season callup if the outfield continues to seek help. He is a speed guy that will provide little power. Darwinzon Hernandez has the stuff to be a closer but he could also be asked to provide starts if the need should arise. He would make a perfect opener for a lineup loaded with lefties up front.

Expected Finish - Third Place and battling to stay over .500.

Toronto Blue Jays

Good - A lot will depend on the second year performances of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, Cavan Biggio and Lourdes Gurriel. If they produce this could be an exciting offense. Randall Grichuk hit over 30 homeruns. He could be the veteran to lead this team. Prior to this year his claim to fame was being drafted ahead of Mike Trout by the Angels when they made back to back first round picks.

Bad - There is a lot of uncertainty at a number of positions. Danny Jansen was supposed to be an offensive catcher but last year he hit only .207. If he can meet his hype that would help the position. Teoscar Hernandez provided some power in centerfield, but there was a lot of swing and miss at the position and his .230 average ended a lot of rallies. They are relying on Travis Shaw to fill the first base job, but he had a horrendous year last year hitting just .157. If he fails they could turn to the unproven Rowdy Tellez.

Ugly - The pitching, both starting and relieving looks like trouble. Ken Giles had success last year as the closer after they traded Robert Osuna, but the previous year he was a disaster. They don’t appear to have any arms that can build a bridge to get to him. The ace of their rotation is Hyun-Jin Ryu, who has had trouble staying healthy. He did start 29 games last year but he has yet to pitch 200 innings in his major league career. There is not a lot to like behind him unless Shun Yamaguchi resurrects the best of his NPB days. Expect to see Nate Pearson in this rotation if not at the start of the season no later than mid-season, if he can stay healthy.

Rookies - Nate Pearson should make this rotation with a good spring. The problem would be monitoring his innings. In his three minor league seasons he has thrown 123 innings, with 102 of those innings coming last year. Anthony Kay is another arm that can slide into this rotation by mid-season. Santiago Espinal could fill a utility role in the infield. The Blue Jays have waited a long time for the promise of Anthony Alford. He has yet to hit over .200 in his three brief major league callup, his career average sitting at .145 with a .218 slugging. The 2020 season could be his last opportunity to fulfill the promise in a Jays uniform.

Expected Finish - A decent offense will not overcome a porous pitching staff. Their best hope is to surpass the Red Sox for third place.

Baltimore Orioles

Good - They will perform so bad that they could again get the number one pick in the 2021 draft. They fell short last year and lost to the Detroti Tigers for the number one pick in 2020. Trey Mancini is their only All Star. He is a first baseman forced to play right field because of the contract of Chris Davis. Don’t really see John Means replicating his 2019 season. He seemed to come out of nowhere last season but if he does it will be a pleasant surprise. The Orioles will have plenty of youth to serve. They just hope some of it will be good. Hanser Alberto hit .305 last year, but only .238 versus righthanders. In a full season he will hit more righthanders or play only against lefthanders in a platoon.

Bad - Youth is not bad but it is unproven. Finding a position for Ryan Mountcastle will be a challenge. They need his offense but his glove and arm are a liability. The outfield has unproven commodities in Anthony Santander, Austin Hays, Cedric Mullins and Dwight Smith Jr. Chance Sisco once provided a lot of promise for behind the plate but his defense is not strong and he is more of a backup, as is starter Pedro Severino.

Ugly - Chris Davis has had two seasons hitting below .200. He wouldn’t even be on the roster if not for his hefty contract. He has hit three homeruns in spring training, but if he fails to hit it will be time to turn over the position to Mancini or Ryan Mountcastle. The starting pitching will be ugly and may be the worst in baseball. With a number of promising arms in the minor leagues the Orioles are turning to journeyman pitchers to fill out the rotation. John Means needs to repeat his 2019 season in order to prevent this from becoming a disaster.

Rookies - Ryan Mountcastle has the bat but lacks the glove. They need to find room for him in the lineup either at DH or first base. He was the MVP in AAA last year in the International League. Hunter Harvey could end up the closer before the season ends. That is a big if to stay healthy. If the Orioles had their wish they would trade current closer Mychal Givens for prospects before the trading deadline. Austin Hays is penciled in to be the centerfielder. His bat has been hot and cold the last three years. Yusniel Diaz may make an appearance. The Orioles have to show something for the Manny Machado trade. The Orioles will probably run through a lot of starting pitchers. That means Keegan Akin will get an opportunity along with Dillon Tate, Dean Kremer, Mike Baumann and Zac Louther. Service time issues could prevent the latter three from being called up.

Expected Finish - Last place and fighting the Tigers and Royals for that first round pick.