Tracking the Progress of the Orioles Number Ones
The Orioles track record since Peter Angelos took over the team in 1993 of drafting good prospects with their number one pick is pretty abysmal until recently. It only took him about a decade before he realized that leaving baseball to the experts was probably the best course of action if he was ever going to restore the Orioles to their once exalted position as the best franchise in baseball. Prior to that he had fired some good baseball people in Davey Johnson and Pat Gillick. Since 1993 until 2002 the names of the Oriole number one picks would not appear on a whos who of potential Hall of Famers. The list includes Jay Powell (1993), Alvie Shepherd (1995), Jayson Werth, Darnell McDonald and Ntema Ndungidi (1997), Rick Elder and Mamon Tucker (1998), Mike Paradis, Richard Stahl, Larry Bigbie, Keith Reed, Josh Cenate, Scott Rice and Brian Roberts (1999), Beau Hale and Tripper Johnson (2000), Chris Smith, Mike Fontenot and Bryan Bass (2001).
They had to forfeit their picks in 1994 and 1996 for free agent signings of Sid Fernandez and Roberto Alomar. Jayson Werth they traded to the Toronto Blue Jays for John Bale two years after drafting him when someone made a decision that he didn’t have the makeup to be a catcher in the major leagues. Past drafts have been more successful with 2002 garnering Adam Loewn and 2003 obtaining Nick Markakis. This is the progress of the Orioles draft picks since 2004.
2004
Wade Townsend RHP - This wasn’t the scouts pick. They wanted to select Chris Nelson but Moneyball was published in 2003 and Angelos must have read it because he ordered the team to draft a college pitcher who was ready for the major leagues. Thrown into a panic, the Orioles drafted Wade Townsend. They then thought they could sign Townsend to a low bonus and when they low balled him in bonus talks the insult had been done. Townsend never signed and went back to Rice. In fairness, Chris Nelson hasn’t made it with the Rockies either, who they selected after the Townsend gaffe, but the Orioles are in greater need of a shortstop. Ironic that the Rays also drafted Townsend in the first round in 2005 at the owner’s insistence. The farthest he got was to AA where he finished with an ERA over 7. A second surgery virtually ended his 2009 season and the Rays released him in 2009. His career may be over unless he can make an impact in an independent league.
2005
Brandon Snyder 1B - Initially he was signed as a catcher but his poor defense there forced the Orioles to move him to third. Shoulder problems then forced the O’s to move him to first base before he really had an opportunity to prove himself at third. Many say that he won’t hit enough to justify his below average defense he has shown at first base so far and that he is ultimately best suited for the outfield. Right now the O’s greatest need is at first base. His breakout season was in 1998 when he hit .315 for Carolina tagging 13 homeruns to drive in 80 runs. He followed that with a .343 average in his first 58 games in Bowie. This led to a promotion to AAA Norfolk where he hit only .248 with two homeruns in 73 games. Just when you thought he was not a prospect again he erupted in the AFL for a .354 average with three homeruns and 18 RBIs in 17 games. The O’s will probably give him some more time in AAA, though a good spring could net the open first base job.
Garrett Olson LHP - He was the reward for the Orioles inability to sign Wade Townsend. He had a lot of success in the Orioles minor leagues, but that success never translated when he was promoted to the major leagues. His worst ERA in the minor leagues was 3.16, but when promoted to the majors in 2007 it was 7.79 and in 2008 6.65 in 25 starts. It is not like the Orioles didn’t give him the opportunity to succeed. One of his major flaws is he is not overpowering, so if he can’t spot his pitches well he becomes very hittable. His walk to strikeout ratios in the minor leagues were consistently 2 to 1 or 3 to 1. When promoted to the major leagues those ratios fell to 1 to 1. Hitters began to read him the more they faced him and his homerun numbers increased. The Orioles were able to trade him to the Cubs for Felix Pie while he was still considered an aspiring prospect trying to get command of his pitches. Now at 26 he is not considered a prospect and it is time he starts to produce.
2006
Bill Rowell RF - At the time he was drafted he was considered the best hitting prospect coming out of high school. At 6′5″ he has outgrown third base and has now moved to the outfield. He does put on a good batting practice display, but it is rare that he puts on the same show when the game is on the line. He has to outgrow some maturity issues that have stuck with him, resulting in his development stagnation. In 2008 he only hit .248 with seven homeruns. Defensively, he also lost his third base position and moved to the outfield. He repeated A ball in 2009 and continued to struggle, some arguing that he had a worse year in 2009 than 2008 (.225, 9, 39). His 35 walks to 122 strikeouts tells me that he should get rid of his current personal batting coach and start fresh. He still puts on impressive batting practice displays, driving the ball with more power than any O’s player in the system. He just can’t translate that batting practice power to the games.
Pedro Beato RHP - Another player that has lost his luster now that his numbers are not equaling his press clippings. He was initially drafted in the first round by the New York Mets. They couldn’t sign him so the O’s used their supplemental number one for the loss of B.J. Ryan to draft Beato the following year. He’s lost the mid-90s fastball that he had earlier in his career and his other two pitches, the curveball and change are wrought with inconsistency. His first couple years his walk to K was nearly 2 to 1 and the opposition batting average was in the .250s. In 2008 the walk to K was borderline 1 to 1 and the opposition average was .307. Those numbers improved a bit in 2009, but still weren’t good (47/88, .290). The O’s have had quite a few of their younger pitchers drafted after Beato leap frog him on the depth chart so he has a lot of work to do to bring the luster back to his prospect status.
2007
Matt Wieters C - This might be considered the best draft pick of the 2000 to 2009 decade. The only criticism that can be made about him is that some fear that at 6′5″ he might be too big to be a catcher. But he has the flexibility to move well behind the plate and his arm and pitch calling ability are above average. His offense is superstar status. His first professional year he hit .355 with 27 homeruns from A to AA. In 2009 the O’s kept him in AAA for all of 39 games, where he hit .305 with five homeruns. He was promoted to Baltimore and didn’t put up the superstar numbers that he put up in the minor leagues, but a .288 average isn’t bad. He struggled to hit for power with only a .412 slugging percentage. What is really telling is his 28 to 86 walk to K ratio that was usually almost at a 1 to 1 ratio in the minor leagues. He will have to get back to being patient at the plate if he wants to put up the same numbers he did in the minor leagues.
2008
Brian Matusz LHP - Brian turned the baseball program at the University of San Diego Toreos around when he arrived on campus and made them a consistent top 20 team in the national rankings. He hopes to do that with the Orioles. He only spent four months in the minor leagues before earning his promotion to the major leagues. He didn’t pitch in 2008 because of his late signing. His ERA in the minors, mixed with A and AA was 1.91. His ERA in the majors was 4.63. The biggest difference between the two numbers was his command. While his fastball registers at 92, he is not considered an overpowering pitcher, though 92 is good velocity for a lefthander. What separates him from other pitchers is his repertoire of curveball, changeup and slider and the command that he has with those pitches. He also has the Maddux like intelligence to get hitters to do what he wants them to do with his pitches. It will take time.
2009
Matt Hobgood RHP - After the first round picks of Wieters and Matusz, Hobgood is a bit of a let down. He is a high school pitcher so it will take some time as he works his way up the system for his skills to develop. At 6′4″ and 245 coming out of high school he is a big pitcher. As big as he is no one talks about him being fat or overweight. His fastball could be an overpowering pitch as he improves his delivery and his curveball and changeup are plus pitches. Unlike Wieters or Matusz Hobgood spent some time in the minor leagues his first year after being drafted. In eight starts in Bluefield he finished with a 4.73 ERA. Opponents swatted him around at a .305 clip and he only had 16 K’s in 27 innings. Many were expecting more. The excuse was that he had pitched a lot out of high school so he was a bit tired coming into his first professional season. Next year the fastball will have to show more velocity and life.
Other lower level prospects
Levi Carolus OF - The Orioles haven’t completely abandoned Curacao. Levi had a nice year hitting .320 in 44 games, enough to make the New York Penn all star team. He doesn’t really have a home defensively, but he will eventually settle in the outfield. Arthur Bonevacia is another player from Curacao that can keep him company on the team, though if he continues to hit .195 he won’t keep him company for long. When promoted to Delmarva Levi saw his average drop to .250. He’s got to work on his patience at the plate and settle on a position as he advances up the Orioles chain.
Kenny Moreland RHP - It isn’t to his advantage to ge 5′11″ and throwing from the right side, but in the New York Penn League he was dominating (6-1, 0.88) in eight starts. Promoted to the Carolina League his lack of overpowering stuff caught up to him. He gave up 10 homerun balls in just over 47 innings. His fastball sits at around 86-88 and he has a slider and change to complement the pitch. He was voted the Division III pitcher of the year in 2008. After no team drafted him the Orioles swooped in and signed him as a free agent.
James Brandhorst RHP - At 6′4″ 240 he has Hobgood size, but coming out of college and not high school, the O’s can not be quite as patient with him. James was drafted in the 20th round last year and appeared in 21 games. He finished with a 1.30 ERA and 32 strikeouts in 28 innings pitched.
Matt Flacco 3B - The brother of Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco, Mike had a pretty good year hitting .272. Mentioned only for name value. It is still too early to determine if he has the skills to advance to the major leagues.
Vito Fabrizio RHP - Vito was voted to the Appalachian league all star team with a 2.96 ERA in 12 starts. He was promoted to the New York Penn League and got one start, where he was pummelled for six runs in three innings of work.
Daurin Tavarez RHP - At 6′6″ he has a good plane for pitching. He also appeared to have good command of his pitches despite the height, walking only 9 and striking out 44. His 1.37 ERA and .220 average are also impressive. This was his second straight year in the Gulf Coast League (2-7, 4.83), but now that he has had some success, the 21 year old from the Dominican can advance to a full season league next year.