Tracking the Red Sox Number Ones
The Red Sox do a pretty good job of letting free agents go and getting compensatory picks for them. They signed Keith Foulke and lost a pick and then received a supplemental pick back for him when they let him go. Also, despite the criticism they get for signing free agent shortstops that have not met their muster, they have been pretty well compensated for them when they let them go, picking up players like Jacoby Ellsbury, Jed Lowrie and Nick Hagadone They were even able to steal from the Yankees Daniel Bard, who was their supplemental pick for the loss of Johnny Damon.
2004
The Red Sox pick went to the Athletics for the signing of Keith Foulke. The Athletics used that pick to acquire Landon Powell. Some will argue that the Red Sox got a greater contribution from Foulke than the Athletics will get from Powell but the jury is still out on that.
2005
They lost their number one to the Cardinals for signing Edgar Renteria. The Cardinals ended up using that pick to select Colby Rasmus. So the Red Sox traded shortstop Orlando Cabrera and Colby Rasmus for Edgar Renteria, Jacoby Ellsbury and Jedd Lowrie. That wouldn’t have been a bad trade. Below are the slew of number one picks the Red Sox acquired for the loss of their free agents.
Jacoby Ellsbury CF - A pick they acquired from the Angels for the loss of Orlando Cabrera. He flashed wonderful numbers his rookie season and gives something the Red Sox haven’t had since Johnny Damon, which is speed. Unfortunately, like Damon his arm is weak and his centerfield skills may not be as strong as they liked. With the Red Sox signing of Mike Cameron he will shift to left field where he will be a strength defensively. With his lack of power it may not traditionally be what teams look for in a left fielder.
Craig Hansen RHP - A pick from the Dodgers for the loss of Derek Lowe. This pick looked great when his first year Hansen made four appearances with the Red Sox. He was going to be their closer as they moved Jonathan Papelbon to the bullpen. Despite the $4.4 million big league contact and the 95 mile per hour fastball, he later was one of the players the Red Sox shipped to the Pirates in the three team trade that sent Manny Ramirez to the Dodgers. He only pitched five games for the Pirates in 2009 because of an injury to his neck that was causing problems with his shoulder ( later diagnosed as Personage Turner Syndrome). The Pirates outrighted him off their roster because it generally takes seven months to five years for someone to heal from this malady, so a long rehabilitation period seems likely.
Clay Buchholtz RHP - A supplemental pick from the Mets for the loss of Pedro Martinez, Clay signed for $800,000. He made his major league debut in 2007 and after a 3-1, 1.79 showing with a low 90s fastball that hit 95, including a no-hitter against the Orioles, he was the next big thing. In 2008 he struggled with a 2-9, 6.75 record and it was back to AA and AAA for a little bit more seasoning. He did well there and in 2009 the Red Sox started him in AAA where he again dominated (7-2, 2.36). Since there was nothing left to prove in the minor leagues the Red Sox gave him another call and he did well (7-4, 4.21). The fact that he is one of the more popular players teams ask about when the Red Sox seek players is telling of his talent. In addition to his fastball he has an excellent curveball and change up that are rated at the top levels. The only thing he needs to improve on is his command, which a 36/68 walk to K ratio is just a bit below what you want to see from your major league pitcher.
Jed Lowrie 2B - A supplemental pick for the loss of Cabrera, Jed signed for $762,500. The Red Sox have been looking for a long time for a shortstop, ever since the departure of Nomar Garciaparra. They would have liked to have given that job to Jed Lowrie, rather than to have spent the millions of dollars for Cabrera, Lugo, Gonzalez and Renteria. Myworld watched Jed committ three errors in one inning in a spring training game and it is difficult to base a judgment on one game, but if the Red Sox are looking for a permanent fix at short Jed will fall just short. Jed had a horrendous year in 2009 battling wrist injuries and poor performance. He only hit .147 in his 32 games in the major leagues and .202 in his rehab stints in the minor leagues. If he can hit like Nomar his below average defense can be tolerable, but without offensive production the Red Sox would be better off putting Cuban Jose Iglesias at short.
Michael Bowden RHP - A supplemental pick for the loss of Lowe, Michael signed for an even less $730,000. The Red Sox have been going slower with the pace of Bowden’s advancement since he was drafted out of high school. He made his major league debut with a successful start in 2008. He lacks the explosive fastball and the break on the curveball of Buchholz, but he appears to show better command of his pitches. After 24 starts in AAA where he went 4-6, 3.13 he got another promotion to the Red Sox where he was a bit overmatched (9.56 ERA). What worries me is that his walk to K ratio (47/88) was a big downgrade over his AA numbers though he did restrict opponents to a .228 average. He probably needs a little more refinement in AAA before becoming a permanent presence on the Red Sox.
Jason Place OF -Jason has been a bit invisible on the prospect lists, after signing for $1.3 million. He has good height (6′3″) but has not generated the power that was expected from him after the Red Sox pulled from tradition and drafted the raw outfielder. He’s got an arm that can fit in right and he had the power potential when drafted, but except for the 19 homers he hit in 2008, those power numbers have been absent. So a corner outfielder is not the place for a hitter lacking speed with a .380 slugging percentage. He has combined for 284 strikeouts his last two years.
Daniel Bard RHP - The pick from the Yankees for the loss of Johnny Damon, Bard signed for $1.55 million. He has been the better pick of the four number ones, though after his initial start in 2007 when he walked 78 and struck out 47 in only 75 innings many questioned the pick. Pitchers who hum fastballs in the high 90s tend to get second chances, and when moved to the bullpen his command improved to 30/107 in only 78 innings. The Red Sox did not keep him long in the minors, calling him up in May after a 1.13 ERA and a 5/29 walk to K ratio in just 16 innings. He did start out well with the Red Sox, but towards the end of the season his numbers were not as good (6.88 ERA in August/September) as his command suffered (11/24 compared to 10/37 his first three months).
Kris Johnson LHP - a supplemental pick that the Red Sox acquired for the loss of Damon, Kris signed for $850,000. Because he was drafted out of college the ideal situation would be for him to get a couple years in the minor leagues and then be ready for the majors. He’s 25 now and his AA and AAA performances were not stellar, unless you can find a silver lining in a 3-16 record with an ERA of 6.35. In August, after going 3-13 in AAA he was demoted back to AA where he had some success in 2008. They hit him there (.310) in his three starts almost as badly as they hit him in AAA (.320) in his 22 starts. The Red Sox did not protect Kris Johnson by placing him on the 40 man roster, making him eligible for the Rule V draft. No teams selected him.
Caleb Clay RHP - a supplemental pick for the loss of Bill Mueller, Clay was signed for $775,000. Caleb was mainly a centerfielder while playing in high school so he is very raw as a pitcher. When major league teams saw him throw in the low 90s in the pen in high school he attracted attention. It might have been a reach for the Red Sox to draft him this highly, but sometimes when you have multiple number one picks you take a risk on a player with a high ceiling. For a pitcher as raw as Caleb he had to undergo season ending Tommy John surgery in July 2007, which meant only two rookie league starts in 2008. The 2009 season was a big test for him and he appeared in 25 games, 16 starts. His relief appearances (2.45) were more successful than his starts (4.79), but then his opponent average was better as a starter (.244) than a reliever (.259).
2007
Their number one was sacrificed to the Dodgers for the signing of Julio Lugo, a signing most Red Sox fans would like to forget. The Dodgers used that pick to select Chris Withrow, still a highly regarded prospect. They also had a supplemental that they used to select James Adkins.
Nick Hagadone LHP - a supplemental pick for the loss of Alex Gonzalez, the Red Sox were able to sign him for $571,000. The bad news for the Red Sox was that Hagadone blew out his elbow in his third start of 2008, ending his season with Tommy John surgery. Perhaps the Pirates luck of first round pitchers is transferring to the Red Sox. He got a late start to the 2009 season but showed enough (2.52 ERA) in ten starts averaging about 2.5 innings per start that the Indians took a flyer on him and he was included in the trade for Victor Martinez. He got five starts for the Indians low A minor league team and they promoted him to High A. Overall, opponents only hit .167 off him in 45 innings. He’s got a mid 90s fastball, good change and an excellent work ethic.
Ryan Dent SS/2B - a supplemental for the loss of Keith Foulke, Ryan signed for $526,500. Dent was one of the more athletic players taken out of the draft, but those tools have not put up the numbers expected from one with his abilities. In 2008 he hit just .154 in 58 games in the New York Penn League, striking out 87 times. He showed a little bit of improvement in 2009, hitting .254 between two lower levels with 122 whiffs. He was drafted as a shortstop but he was found to be a bit rough at the position and now he is at second base.
2008
Casey Kelly RHP/SS - Casey wanted to play short. The Red Sox thought he was best suited for pitching. So for the 2008 and 2009 seasons he spent half his time at short and half his time on the mound. At short he showed good range but he couldn’t hit (.224). On the mound he showed a low 90s fastball, curveball and change, dominating at low A Greenville to be promoted to High A Salem (3.09). Opponents hit him at a .190 clip and he had an excellent 16/74 walk to K ratio in 95 innings. He was demoted after 17 starts to play shortstop full time for Low A. It appears that his path to the majors will be much quicker as a pitcher, where he has the possibility to start at AA, than as a pitcher, where he would probably repeat Low A. Casey is ready to give up his aspirations to be a shortstop. Casey signed a contract as a two sport star for $3 million. He qualified for that distinction since he was offered a scholarship to play football at the University of Tennessee.
Bryan Price RHP - a supplemental pick for the loss of Eric Gagne, Bryan signed for $849,000. He was the third player, along with Hagadone and Justin Masterson that were traded to the Indians for Victor Martinez. Price didn’t have a lot of experience pitching for Rice (17 innings) until his last year, when he blossomed as their setup man. The Red Sox moved him to the starting rotation to give him work and determine if his low 90s fastball, slider and change combination would work there. He had a 2.45 ERA in eight starts with the Red Sox low A minor league team, but a 6.54 ERA in eleven starts when promoted to Salem. He pitched better for the Indians High A team (4.95). He did give up nine homeruns in just 36 innings at Kinston.
2009
Reymond Fuentes OF - The Red Sox signed him for a little over $1 million. He’s got pretty good pedigree, being a cousin to Carlos Beltran. He also patrols the same position as Carlos. If his arm were better he could be classified as a 5-tool player. He also doesn’t hit for as much power as Carlos but he appears to have the potential to cover more ground once he picks up the bat off the ball better. He hit .290 with a .711 OPS, not great numbers but at 19 he has a lot of time to enhance his skills.
Other Lower Level Prospects
Tim Federowicz C - A seventh round pick in 2008, he crushed low A pitching at a .345 clip, bombing 19 doubles and 10 homeruns in 55 games. That pace slowed a bit when promoted to Salem where he hit only .257 and his slugging percentage dropped from .562 to .390. Tim isn’t just an offense only catcher. He was considered the best defensive catcher in the SAL and was voted to the mid season all star team.
Ryan Lavarnway C - Other than the fact that he had just dominated the league, the other reason for the Federowicz promotion was to give Ryan a chance to catch more. Ryan hit .285 with 21 homeruns and 87 RBIs, with 20 of those homeruns coming off righthanded pitching. Ryan was selected in the sixth round of 2008.
Stolmy Pimentel RHP - This was the Dominicans first season in a full season league and he finished with a 10-7 record and 3.82 ERA, but at 19 he was considered one of the younger pitchers in the league. Opponents hit him at a .290 clip but perhaps his pitches were too far over the plate (29 to 103 walk to K ratio). This was much higher than his minor league career .213 numbers. The Red Sox were able to sign him for the meager sum of $25,000.
Ryan Westmoreland OF - Ryan did not play in 2008 after being drafted in the fifth round because of a shoulder injury. Red Sox fans were anxious to see him play because of his hyped 30/30 potential. He only played 60 games, getting a late start to the season where he played mostly at DH. He hit .296 with seven homeruns and 19 stolen bases in that short time until he collided with a wall in his ninth game in the outfield and broke his collarbone.
Alex Wilson RHP - the second round 2009 pick toyed with the New York Penn League hitters, finishing with a 0.50 ERA after 13 starts. Opponents hit only .085 off him. You wonder why the Red Sox did not have him promoted earlier to give him more of a challenge. Because of his college load and Tommy John surgery in college, the Red Sox were going slow with him. He’s a fastball/slider pitcher that may be best suited for the pen.
Jose Alvarez LHP - The Venezuelan also dominated the New York Penn with an 8-3 mark and a 1.52 ERA. At 5′11, 150 he is not a big pitcher so durability may come into question. He skipped a level and was promoted to High A where he pitched 12 games in relief, finishing with a 4.74 ERA. The jump was probably a little too much for him.
Kenneth Roque 2B - a graduate of the Puerto Rican baseball academy, Roque was drafted in the tenth round in 2007. He hit .317 in the Gulf Coast league and when promoted to the New York Penn he hit .313.
Manuel Rivera RHP - This was his first appearance state side after winning the Red Sox Latin pitcher of the year award last year. This year in nine starts he finished with a 1.19 ERA.
Roman Mendez RHP - Mendez combined with Rivera to form a potent Dominican duo. His numbers were not as impressive as Rivera (2-3, 1.99) but his stuff is considered more electric. The Red Sox invested $125,000 when they signed him in 2007. This was his first opportunity state side after pitching in the Dominican Summer League last year.
Juan Rodriguez RHP - As a 21 year old in the DSL he was pitching against 18 year olds and dominating them (1.55 ERA, 78 whiffs in 63 innings) but at 6′5″ he does have an imposing presence. The Red Sox may send him stateside next year and treat him like a college player. Yunior Ortega RHP - In the Dominican Republic the Red Sox are the favorite team for the majority of the populace, so it doesn’t take a lot to convince a youngster to sign with the Red Sox. Yunior is another pitcher that hopes to go stateside, and with his numbers (5-1, 1.84) he shouldn’t have any problem doing it. At 18 he is also younger than Juan.
Francisco Taveras LHP - Another pitcher that put up good numbers (3-2, 1.71), this time from the left side. At 6′0″ he is not a big guy, but he did whiff 71 hitters in 58 innings. Opponents hit him at only a .190 clip.